[Deep Dive] 2026.07.28 Eli Lilly (LLY) +14% YTD — Fundamentals, Valuation & Outlook

LLY closed at 1,220.66, +1.93% on the day and +14.0% year to date — monthly change bars for this year

Stock Deep Dive · 2026-07-28

🌐 한국어판 보기

Eli Lilly (LLY) closed at $1,220.66, up 1.93% on the day. Year-to-date return is +14.0%, sitting at 95% of its 52-week range. Next earnings: 2026-08-05 (in 7 days).

Close
$1,220.66
+1.93% · YTD +14.0%
Market Cap
$1,088.51B
Drug Manufacturers – General
Forward P/E
27.1x
PER 43.1x
52-wk Range
95%
High $1,249.45 · Low $623.78

🔍 At a Glance

Eli Lilly is riding a genuine growth wave—revenue up 55.5% year-over-year to a $72.25B TTM base, with a 47.3% operating margin and a jaw-dropping 107.5% ROE, powered by Mounjaro and Zepbound’s GLP-1 dominance. But at 43.1x trailing earnings and 41.0x book value, sitting near 95% of its 52-week range, the stock leaves little room for error, and Goldman’s cautious commentary shows not everyone is convinced the premium is justified.

🏢 How It Makes Money

Lilly’s engine is split between cardiometabolic health—Mounjaro and Zepbound for diabetes and obesity, alongside legacy insulins like Humalog and Humulin—and a growing oncology franchise spanning Cyramza, Erbitux, Jaypirca, Retevmo, and newer entrant Inluriyo. The GLP-1 obesity and diabetes category is clearly the growth engine behind that eye-popping 55.5% quarterly revenue jump, while oncology and diabetes legacy products provide a diversified, cash-generative base.

📈 Quarterly Results — Is Business Growing?

Quarter Revenue Op. Income Net Income Op. Margin
25Q1 $12.73B $5.30B $2.76B 41.7%
25Q2 $15.56B $7.02B $5.66B 45.1%
25Q3 $17.60B $8.39B $5.58B 47.6%
25Q4 $19.29B $8.99B $6.64B 46.6%
26Q1 $19.80B $9.78B $7.40B 49.4%

Latest-quarter revenue up +55.5% versus the same quarter a year ago.

Quarterly revenue and income chart

💡 Korea Market 101
A company posts a report card every quarter; this table lines them up in order. Revenue is everything it sold; operating income is what’s left after costs — the true profit from the core business. Steadily rising numbers mean the business is working, and an expanding operating margin is an even better sign. Over time, stock prices tend to follow these report cards.

⚖️ Valuation — Cheap or Expensive?

Metric Value How to read it
P/E (trailing) 43.1x Price vs last 12 months’ earnings
P/E (forward) 27.1x Price vs next 12 months’ expected earnings — growth hopes baked in
P/S 15.1x Price vs revenue — for high-growth names with thin profits
P/B 41.0x Price vs book value — below 1x means priced under liquidation value
PEG 1.7x P/E ÷ growth — near 1 is fair for the growth; above 2 is demanding
EV/EBITDA 30.5x Enterprise value (incl. debt) vs cash generation

Peer comparison

Name Mkt Cap P/E Fwd P/E P/S
Eli Lilly and Company $1,088.51B 43.4x 27.1x 15.1x
Novo Nordisk A/S $225.34B 12.2x 15.6x 0.7x
Merck & Company, Inc. $325.57B 37.2x 13.7x 5.0x
Pfizer, Inc. $143.91B 19.3x 8.9x 2.3x
💡 Korea Market 101
Cheap or expensive is judged by multiples of earnings, not the share price itself. A P/E of 20 means you pay 20 years of current profits for the company. Fast growers earn high multiples — but when growth cracks, the multiple breaks first. That’s why the peer table matters: if one name is far pricier than its rivals, check whether its growth actually justifies the premium.

🎯 Street Consensus

  • Price target (mean): $1,276.96
  • Target high / low: $1,600.00 / $850.00
  • Implied upside: +4.6%
  • Rating: Buy (1.7/5)
  • Analysts covering: 26
  • Next earnings: 2026-08-05
💡 Korea Market 101
The average of sell-side analysts’ 12-month price forecasts. A target far above the current price doesn’t guarantee upside — sometimes the stock just fell faster than analysts cut their numbers. The direction of target revisions matters more than the level, and more analysts means a more reliable consensus.

📉 Price Action — Technical Check

1-year price chart with 50/200-day moving averages

Indicator Value How to read it
RSI (14d) 51.1 Above 70 overbought · below 30 oversold
vs 60-day MA +9.9% Above/below the medium-term trend
vs 200-day MA +20.0% Above/below the long-term trend
Golden/death cross 50-day above 200-day (bullish alignment) 50-day MA crossing above (golden) or below (death) the 200-day
Volume (vs 20d avg) 1.0x 2x+ means a spike in market attention
💡 Korea Market 101
Fundamentals tell you what the company is; technicals tell you how the market is treating the stock right now. Above the 50- and 200-day moving averages = uptrend; below = downtrend. RSI is a short-term heat gauge — above 70, the stock has run hot and may need to cool off. Even great companies keep falling in the middle of a downtrend, so this helps with the timing question.

📰 Recent News

  • Does Eli Lilly Stock Actually Diversify Your Portfolio? — Trefis
  • Eli Lilly (LLY) Stock Gets Fair Value Bump As Analysts Lift Targets On GLP1 Outlook — Yahoo Finance
  • Eli Lilly, Dell Lead Five Stocks To Watch As Leadership Shifts — Investor’s Business Daily
  • Goldman Sachs sees writing on the wall for Eli Lilly stock — thestreet.com
  • Analysts’ Opinions Are Mixed on These Healthcare Stocks: Aurora Cannabis (ACB), Eli Lilly & Co (LLY) and Tyra Bioscience (TYRA) — The Globe and Mail
  • Collect 9.8% On LLY Stock Now, Own It 30% Cheaper If It Dips — Trefis
💡 Korea Market 101
Recent headlines on this name. Earnings, product launches, big contracts, and lawsuits are the catalysts that move the stock.

🔭 Scenarios & What to Watch

Bulls point to consensus targets averaging 1,276.96 (as high as 1,600) and analyst target hikes tied to GLP-1 optimism, with RSI at a neutral 51.1 suggesting room to run before overbought conditions. Bears should note the stock trades 20% above its 200-day average and 9.9% above its 60-day, a stretch that may weigh on near-term upside if growth decelerates. The next earnings report on 2026-08-05 is the key catalyst—watch for continued Mounjaro/Zepbound momentum and margin durability, both worth confirming before the premium valuation can be fully underwritten.

Next earnings on 2026-08-05 (in 7 days) — guidance usually decides the stock’s direction more than the reported quarter.

💡 Korea Market 101
These scenarios are if-then conditions, not predictions. The investor’s job isn’t to guess right — it’s to check, at each earnings report, which side’s conditions are actually coming true.

📚 All stock analysis · More on Eli Lilly · Market report for this session

Stock report · published 2026-07-29 07:25 KST
For information only — a summary of public data, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Source data (Yahoo Finance and others) may be delayed or contain errors. All investment decisions are your own responsibility.

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