[Deep Dive] 2026.08.06 Tesla (TSLA) -29% YTD — Fundamentals, Valuation & Outlook

TSLA closed at 319.53, -0.63% on the day and -28.9% year to date — monthly change bars for this year

Stock Deep Dive · 2026-08-06

🌐 한국어판 보기

Tesla (TSLA) closed at $319.53, down 0.63% on the day. Year-to-date return is -28.9%, sitting at 11% of its 52-week range. Next earnings: 2026-10-21 (in 75 days).

Close
$319.53
-0.63% · YTD -28.9%
Market Cap
$1,262.00B
Auto Manufacturers
Forward P/E
144.0x
PER 331.8x
52-wk Range
11%
High $498.83 · Low $297.38

🔍 At a Glance

Tesla still posts real growth — revenue up 25.5% year-over-year last quarter, and analysts (40 strong, average target $397.87) remain net “buy” — but the stock has been battered, down 28.9% YTD and sitting just 11% off its 52-week low. The bear case is hard to ignore: an operating margin of just 4.6%, ROE of 4.7%, and a valuation (trailing PER 331.8, EV/EBITDA 117.7) that leaves almost no room for execution stumbles.

🏢 How It Makes Money

Tesla’s core is the Automotive segment — designing, manufacturing, and selling EVs, plus monetizing regulatory credits, financing, insurance, and service. The Energy Generation and Storage segment adds a second, smaller growth engine. Margins have thinned as competition and pricing pressure bite, even as top-line growth stays healthy.

📈 Quarterly Results — Is Business Growing?

Quarter Revenue Op. Income Net Income Op. Margin
25Q2 $22.50B $923M $1.17B 4.1%
25Q3 $28.09B $1.86B $1.37B 6.6%
25Q4 $24.90B $1.57B $840M 6.3%
26Q1 $22.39B $941M $477M 4.2%
26Q2 $28.24B $398M $1.11B 1.4%

Latest-quarter revenue up +25.5% versus the same quarter a year ago.

Quarterly revenue and income chart

💡 Korea Market 101
A company posts a report card every quarter; this table lines them up in order. Revenue is everything it sold; operating income is what’s left after costs — the true profit from the core business. Steadily rising numbers mean the business is working, and an expanding operating margin is an even better sign. Over time, stock prices tend to follow these report cards.

⚖️ Valuation — Cheap or Expensive?

Metric Value How to read it
P/E (trailing) 331.8x Price vs last 12 months’ earnings
P/E (forward) 144.0x Price vs next 12 months’ expected earnings — growth hopes baked in
P/S 12.2x Price vs revenue — for high-growth names with thin profits
P/B 15.4x Price vs book value — below 1x means priced under liquidation value
PEG 4.6x P/E ÷ growth — near 1 is fair for the growth; above 2 is demanding
EV/EBITDA 117.7x Enterprise value (incl. debt) vs cash generation

Peer comparison

Name Mkt Cap P/E Fwd P/E P/S
Tesla, Inc. $1,262.00B 293.1x 144.0x 12.2x
General Motors Company $78.63B 38.8x 5.9x 0.4x
Ford Motor Company $54.99B 7.2x 0.3x
Rivian Automotive, Inc. $22.27B -8.6x 3.8x
💡 Korea Market 101
Cheap or expensive is judged by multiples of earnings, not the share price itself. A P/E of 20 means you pay 20 years of current profits for the company. Fast growers earn high multiples — but when growth cracks, the multiple breaks first. That’s why the peer table matters: if one name is far pricier than its rivals, check whether its growth actually justifies the premium.

🎯 Street Consensus

  • Price target (mean): $397.87
  • Target high / low: $600.00 / $125.00
  • Implied upside: +24.5%
  • Rating: Buy (2.4/5)
  • Analysts covering: 40
  • Next earnings: 2026-10-21
💡 Korea Market 101
The average of sell-side analysts’ 12-month price forecasts. A target far above the current price doesn’t guarantee upside — sometimes the stock just fell faster than analysts cut their numbers. The direction of target revisions matters more than the level, and more analysts means a more reliable consensus.

📉 Price Action — Technical Check

1-year price chart with 50/200-day moving averages

Indicator Value How to read it
RSI (14d) 27.8 Above 70 overbought · below 30 oversold
vs 60-day MA -18.0% Above/below the medium-term trend
vs 200-day MA -21.9% Above/below the long-term trend
Golden/death cross 50-day below 200-day (bearish alignment) 50-day MA crossing above (golden) or below (death) the 200-day
Volume (vs 20d avg) 0.6x 2x+ means a spike in market attention
💡 Korea Market 101
Fundamentals tell you what the company is; technicals tell you how the market is treating the stock right now. Above the 50- and 200-day moving averages = uptrend; below = downtrend. RSI is a short-term heat gauge — above 70, the stock has run hot and may need to cool off. Even great companies keep falling in the middle of a downtrend, so this helps with the timing question.

📰 Recent News

How to read these headlines

The common thread is scrutiny over Tesla’s valuation after a sharp July selloff, alongside growing investor focus on how heavily capital spending — increasingly intertwined with SpaceX and AI infrastructure — is consuming resources. If capex tied to AI/robotics ambitions keeps rising without a near-term profit payoff, it may weigh on already thin margins and complicate the bull case that current lofty multiples are pricing in future, not present, earnings power.

Headlines are credited to their publishers — click a headline to open the original article. The commentary is written by this site and does not represent the views of any publisher.

💡 Korea Market 101
Recent headlines on this name. Earnings, product launches, big contracts, and lawsuits are the catalysts that move the stock.

🔭 Scenarios & What to Watch

Bull case: revenue growth reaccelerates, margins stabilize, and energy storage scales, supporting the case for the stock to close the wide gap to the $397.87 average target (as high as $600 in bull scenarios). Bear case: margin erosion continues, macro or demand softness pressures deliveries, and the stock drifts toward the $125 low-end target. RSI at 27.8 signals oversold conditions technically, but shares remain well below both MA60 (-18%) and MA200 (-21.9%), meaning any bounce needs to prove durable. The next earnings report on 2026-10-21 is the key catalyst — watch margin trends and delivery guidance closely.

Next earnings on 2026-10-21 (in 75 days) — guidance usually decides the stock’s direction more than the reported quarter.

💡 Korea Market 101
These scenarios are if-then conditions, not predictions. The investor’s job isn’t to guess right — it’s to check, at each earnings report, which side’s conditions are actually coming true.

📚 All stock analysis · More on Tesla · Market report for this session

Stock report · published 2026-08-07 07:25 KST
For information only — a summary of public data, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Source data (Yahoo Finance and others) may be delayed or contain errors. All investment decisions are your own responsibility.

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